The numbers say Michigan State belongs in the top three to stay

Michigan State is back where it started. The Spartans were No. 3 in the USCHO.com poll in mid-October, climbed to No. 2, dropped to No. 4 after a split at New Hampshire, and are No. 3 again in both national polls released Nov. 2. Six games into the season, the question isn’t whether they belong in the top three. It’s whether the gap between them and the two teams above them is as wide as the polls suggest.

Mitten Hockey’s take: Michigan State belongs in the top three to stay, and the case for No. 2 is closer than the voters have it. The case for No. 1 isn’t there yet, and the numbers say so plainly.

The defense is the headline

Michigan State is 5-1-0 and has allowed nine goals in six games, 1.50 per game, according to College Hockey Inc. Only a handful of teams nationally have allowed fewer per game, and most of them have played two games or fewer. Of the teams that have played as many games as the Spartans, only Wisconsin (0.83) and Colorado College (1.38) are stingier.

Take away power-play goals on both sides and Michigan State has outscored opponents 14-4. That is a team that controls games when the sides are even.

Freshman goaltender Joshua Ravensbergen is a big part of it. He is 4-1-0 with a 1.62 goals-against average and a .947 save percentage in five appearances, and he was the Big Ten’s Third Star on Oct. 20. He made 32 saves in the Hall of Fame Game against North Dakota in Austin, Texas. Junior Quentin Sigurdson has played once and stopped 29 of 30 shots for a .967 save percentage.

The power play finishes

The Spartans have scored on 9 of 25 power plays, 36.0%. Among teams in College Hockey Inc.’s national table, only Dartmouth (in two games), Wisconsin (40.7%), and Union (37.0%) are converting at a higher rate.

Sophomore forward Anthony Romani is the finisher. He leads the team with seven goals and 10 points in six games, and Michigan State Athletics said his 1.17 goals per game ranked second nationally when he was named the Big Ten’s Second Star of the Week. He scored 14 goals in 37 games as a freshman. Chase Reid leads the team with six assists, and Ryker Lee has seven points.

How Michigan State stacks up with the top two

Here is how the top three in the USCHO poll compare, using College Hockey Inc. team stats as of Nov. 5:

No. 1 Wisconsin (6-0-0): 4.83 goals for and 0.83 against per game, a plus-4.00 margin. Shots 39.17 for and 18.33 against per game. Power play 40.7%, penalty kill 73.3%.
No. 2 Michigan (8-1-0): 5.11 goals for and 2.56 against per game, a plus-2.55 margin. Shots 33.33 for and 29.78 against. Power play 21.2%, penalty kill 76.5%.
No. 3 Michigan State (5-1-0): 3.83 goals for and 1.50 against per game, a plus-2.33 margin. Shots 30.33 for and 30.33 against. Power play 36.0%, penalty kill 80.0%.

Wisconsin has earned No. 1. The Badgers are outshooting opponents by more than 2-to-1 and have allowed five goals in six games. Nobody in the state is matching that right now.

The No. 2 spot is a different story. Michigan scores more, by more than a goal a game, and has played three more games. But Michigan State allows about a goal less per game, converts its power play at a much higher rate, and kills penalties a bit better. The per-game margins are separated by about two-tenths of a goal. On these numbers, the gap between No. 2 and No. 3 is close to a coin flip, and the Spartans and Wolverines will settle part of it head to head on Nov. 20 and 21.

The NCAA’s own measure is less sold for now. NCAA.com listed Michigan State eighth in the NPI through games of Nov. 1, as Mitten Hockey’s weekly rankings report noted, inside the 16-team tournament field but behind Michigan at No. 1. Early-season NPI positions swing hard on small samples, and the schedule ahead gives the Spartans plenty of chances to move it.

What’s holding the number down

Two things, and both show up in the stats.

The first is the New Hampshire weekend. Michigan State lost 1-0 at New Hampshire on Oct. 23 and won the rematch 2-1 the next night. Three goals in two nonconference games is the one stretch where the offense went quiet, and it cost the Spartans two spots in the poll. A team that wants to finish top three has to beat the teams it should beat, and that weekend is the clearest mark against them.

The second is the shot count. Michigan State has taken 182 shots and allowed 182. For a team with a plus-14 goal differential, that is an unusual split: the Spartans are winning on finishing and goaltending more than on territory. North Dakota outshot them 35-33 in Austin. Wisconsin and Michigan are both winning the shot battle. If the Spartans start tilting the ice the way their roster suggests they can, the goal margin should follow.

Discipline is a related issue. Michigan State has been shorthanded 25 times in six games, more than four times a game, compared with 15 times in six games for Wisconsin. The penalty kill has held up at 80.0%, but seven minors against North Dakota is a lot of time spent defending.

The next three weekends decide a lot

The schedule is about to answer the question. Michigan State hosts No. 13 Boston University at Munn Ice Arena on Friday and Saturday, plays at Notre Dame on Nov. 12 and 13, and then meets Michigan for the first time this season, at Michigan on Nov. 20 and at home on Nov. 21.

Mitten Hockey’s leaning: the defense and goaltending are real, and they are the kind of strengths that travel. A team allowing 1.50 goals per game with a 36% power play is a top-three team, and we expect the Spartans to stay there through November. The case for passing Michigan comes down to the shot numbers. If Michigan State closes that gap and stays out of the penalty box, the Nov. 20-21 series could flip the order of the top two. If the shot count stays even, the Spartans are still a top-three team, but one leaning on Ravensbergen more than it should.

Either way, the season that was supposed to be a Michigan versus Michigan State fight is shaping up exactly that way.

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